Added CRRC Hong Kong stock, Mu & Oil thoughts

Added CRRC , a Defensive and Growth play. In a looming tariff environment, if it happens, China will boost domestic spending by a huge amount.


Micron has been hit by a ban from China, caught in the cross-fire tensions b/w China and US.
I have stopped buying MU (even though it is undervalued) and NXPI as I think that TrXXX being the dictator and spoilt brXX is going to make life tough for China for some time, and probably they are better opportunities in Oil, which is in a cycle 1 year later than the semi-con run up.


Trump tweets have been going on to pressure OPEC pumping more oil to lower prices. Although we will be seeing a even undersupply as we approach later in the year, it is affecting sentiments now. Secondly, the trade war is also affecting demand. I think this will clear up in next 1-2 months which will again boost market, as well as oil.

OPEC June Meeting and Trump asking SA to increase Oil Production

This is game theory 101. Basically it is Trump telling SA, if you increase oil productions by 1.5 M, we will sanctions Iran. And so SA played this game with Trump. After OPEC meeting, the market is calling the bluff of OPEC. It is like Poker, where SA is saying OPEC is increasing production substantially , but it is likely production increase will be very little , and will not be sufficient to offset disruption going on everywhere from Venezuala, Libya, Angola, Nigeria and with Iran looming.


Your salary and your team salary is too high. - Trump


Yes boss, we will work more by 10% and ask everyone to cut our salary by 10% - OPEC.


I really read with amusement when many analyst articles state stupid comments about what is going on - that SA is heeding Trump's call to increase production and trying to bring down oil prices.


Call their bluff. We will see $90 oil by end this year and spike $130 oil next year if Iran sanctions begins. 

2015 , 2016, 2017 and reaching a new milestone in NW 2018 YTD

Haven't been blogging for quite some time as had been quite busy with family and work.


2015 have been rather inactive - selling of MTQ , buying ERX on the bounce and shorting oil DWT later in the year betting the SA will continue to pump oil to kill off shale,  but regretfully not holding it. (~  -3%).
Lesson learnt for MTQ is not to buy too big and not more than the daily volume of the counter. I took several weeks to dispose of MTQ (same as Food Empire previously)  which dropped quite a bit. Another lesson learnt is to track Macro , where oil plunged due to Shale.




2016 Earned some through DWT and YANG but got burnt when it rebounded. Lesson learnt is not to short when the major trend has changed. After that mainly buying NUGT, JNUG, but some losses near the end as the trend changed, but was lucky as I was not greedy. Later near the end bought DLPH due to electrification / Autonomous Driving. Also dabbled with UGAZ, but was too greedy. went up from 25-> 50 in a 1.5 months (Late Oct to early DEC) but later drop to 36 when I went on vacation. (~ +20%)




2017 bought BABA late last year (87), but was trying to time the market by shifting to others after Q1 earning report (103) . was a mistake as it raced to 160. Also traded MU (24 - 28 , 30-34, 37-43,), AMD push into server market with INTC has almost 100% market share  (13.8->12.5), WDC , USXY in May and Aug,  DELPH. (~ +20%).
Lesson learnt here is should have just bought 5 big good companies at a good price and hold at least 1 year (BABA , MU) would have landed be about 50%.
Shifted to oil stocks from Sep.


2018 June up YTD 120% , mainly CRC, others Gear Energy and Orocobre , traded GUSH and MU and traded NXPI (when it plunged, and sold when news that it has received approval). This year my NW hit another digit more, this was from probably 12 years back in 2006.  Oil with years of underinvestment is poised to continue the bull run with (besides US and Canada and some spare capacity from Russia n SA) barring any disaster. Read up Twilight in the Desert for some insights of SA oil reserves, an old book but I think is even more relevant now. Singapore Counter currently holding Sunright and PEC. From my initial injection of funds, I am about 40X up. Targeting another 40X in next 7 years.