Transactions Dec W2 - oil

Oil dropped from a high of 147 to a low of last week of 40 a barrel.
It then went up about 47 dollars last week. On Friday last week it dropped to 44.7 (Dec contract) and 47.75 Jan Contract due to the saving of Big 3 automobile manufacturers did not go through in congress.

This was my thoughts - they will definetly pass them, Tuesday Fed will cut rate, Wednesday OPEC issued that they will cut supply heavily to balance the ideal price for oil.

So I bought on weakness, with Friday night ending at 46.7+. Monday it rose to above 50 dollars but crash downwards after US release dismal manufacturing data 45 dollars +. Tuesday Fed cut rate to 0.25. Initially it rose, together with US stocks market hitting 4-5%. However, oil slid further to 43.8.

What the heck, Wednesday when OPEC agreed to its biggest supply cut ever (2.2 mill barrels ), it rose a bit then tanked further. Wednesday was my trading date to pull out. Before the OPEC meeting, I just put a price at 47.8 and it got hit.

I was lucky to scrap this flat. From how I see, speculative trades are still in play. with Dec futures ending that week, most people are closing their positions. So we see a long squeeze andthere is a big gap in the next month's contract. (<3-4 dollars)

Lucky in the sense that I initiated the later contract, which was not played that badly and did not fall badly. Things to learn is that 1) I should still monitor US economic news. 2) I should learn to grap big profits even though I have a deadline to exit.
Things that I did well... at least I cut before the OPEC announcement.

Another bad move, the Singapore Share I shorted is Wilmar. Why ? Because it did not decline as much as other blue chips, and palm oil prices are down by more than 50%. Its results have been supported by financial hedging and not real profits. Anyway as I expected oil to rise, I close this at a loss 2.9 fr 2.65.

I am waiting for the automobile bailout and rise in Euphoria to short again.

Last Friday as I was going on a trip, I place an order as I believe it will drop further and I think with the recent rally, it has some sufficient margin. The automobile bailout came that night, too bad, US market rose about 2% but ended flat.

Lets see how things play out.