Showing posts with label Sentiment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sentiment. Show all posts

Sunday, October 19, 2008

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After a big crash last week of almost 15% (recovered on Friday -6% to -1.9%), US equites rebounded 13% on Monday night. STI on Monday went up to 6 % and another 7% on Tuesday. I sold 3 SIMISCI at 272.2 (Fr 255), SGX 30 contracts at 6.12, 4 S&P 1043 and 6 1053. Long 10 Nymex mini-oil at 82.9. I had expected a long overdue rally on Monday. So I went in to short on Tuesday STI. S&P futures was positive also. It went as high as 1059 as Paulson went live to talk on the bailout package.

My idea is a pairing where I long oil and short S&P, where if markets go up, oil long will cover my shorts. If markets drop, I expect markets to drop harder than oil.
Very wrong, oil dropped faster than S&P futures. I cut oil at 77.9 as it was speculative. At least my S&P drop could compensate my losses. Why I long oil
- oil with less supply than demand is still a bull market for oil

Why I cut oil and my conclusion.
- entry is important
- oil with reduced demand due to recession
- speculative positions will be cut
- trading firms are now getting their credit lines cut, therefore cutting their position further
- 55 dollars is a good entry point

I also close all my short positions on Friday.
SGX 5.61 (Thursday - very stuipid)
SIMSCI 241.2
S&P 946
Why I close my shorts, did not want to lose a winning position.(more emotional than any logical thinking)

My thoughts right now
(-) things will probably get worse
(-) credit card crisis will be next
(+) LIBOR credit swaps are getting slightly better
(+) FED will purchase 250 billion of shares in Financial institution
(+) Warren Buffett is buying
(+) VIX very very high (70+)
(+) Oil is dropping
(+) Bad news follows a drop before rallying. The situation could be changing to rallying on a bad news. Sentiments are really bad now which is a contarian indicator.

I am anticipating a mini short volatile movement up. Lets see when VIX drop to 50+ or S&P at 99+.

Portfolio down -16% now. with Celestial at 30.5 cents with PE is now 2.2 with expected earnings of 14 cents. Soyabean futures now trading at 905 dollars down 40% from high of 1500+ . It also declared on 13 Oct that its products is cleared of melamine.

My thoughts on S-shares.
Sentiments are quiet bad now on S-shares. My thoughts, it is only in extremely bad sentiments that stocks get battered so badly. China will be the next superpower, and good sentiments will be back, so no worries. We have already seen RMB appreciated 10% against S$ the last 1 year. A lot of people also condemn the S-shares here mentioning that HK shares are much better. Well, this is what I think - HK shares are mostly big blue chips and growth will be quite limited. S shares on the other hand have smaller capilization and growth for 5-10 baggers are there. But saying that, I agree alot of S shares here are very poor quality. No matter how attactive the PE (even 1) or PB (some even below cash value) of textile or capital intensive industries companies or cyclical companies, cashflow negative companies, I avoid them like a plaque.

My investment is still on solid companies with sustainable advantage, continuous growth, continous innovation, management who align themselves with shareholders.

My China Milk divestment was with the same principals. Even with record profits, it did not give a dividend and although it gave a dividend in Q1, it was a puny 0.5 cents. If they could justify with investment within that year, I could still give it a benefit of doubt. Thus, I sold out and reinvested back all in Celestial.

Besides Celestial, there are also a few worth investing, a cosmetic company, a shoe company, a company selling pork, and a bottle manufacturing company. All of these copmanies PE (around 3-4) is still higher than Celestial 2.2, thus I have no urgency to invest in them yet.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Portfolio End Sep08













Kept closely to my short term trades and sold off C &BC for a small profit. Also sold off my CM (0.4), a bit emotional on my part but I find that the next few months milk demand will go down. So even though it is an innocent party, it will still be affected. After I sold, it rebounded as it was at a depressed price...sigh.
Shorted S&P on 1208 on Tues ....wanted to cover on Friday as I thought the Bill is going to be passed, however I overslept...in the end covered at 1210.5. A small loss



On Monday...wanted to long SIMSCI as STI has been dropping from Tuesday to Friday last week. Long 10 SIMSCI at 299.3...it reached till 302.8 before dropping.... In the afternoon, I was deliberating whether to wait for the bailout news to be announced as SIMSCI was still dropping. I close it at a lost at 294.3. Furthermore Dow futures were dropping. My rationale is that in a bear market, longing is very dangerous especially it is speculative, so I cut off my loss.


On Monday, Fortis and some banks in UK were going belly up. Their CDS doubled within a week and had liquidity problems. Fortis had to be partly sold and nationalised. In the US some banks were also having issues. I shorted S&P in the US morning at 1176 (down 44 points) I was feeling rather naked in a bear market. What if I am wrong...I can still hold. If I don't short, my position will be quite bad. After I shorted, I realise I might be shorting at a low position, so I put a cover at 1169. After which, I made an order at 1176 again.

Somehow or rather, I could not sleep very well. My order was filled at around 3am. I went to turn on the TV at around 4-5+... wah I thought I saw wrongly...S&P at 1107.... Dow had drop 777 points as Congress did not pass the Bill.


In the morning, I tried to make a sell order for SIM SCI at 281.8 (fr 291), unfortunately futures only reach 281.7 ! So morning it went as low as 275+ before making a restounding recovery to 291 ! There was more fear in me, that is why I did not do too much. As most shares rose back, I bought Celestial at 0.53 (-0.05). I also closed my S&P short at 1129. (VIX over 40+ and big fall)


Most shares recovered , but not Celestial. I think it is not justified. Probably some big funds are still trying to unload.
Celestial is now trading at PE of 3.7. With the milk scandal going on, will it get affected ? My view is that sales might slow down, however, it will be buffeted by some people who switch from milk to soya bean. This will probably last 3-6 months (1-2 quarters), however I think this will be a good opportunity to grab an excellent company.


CN has shown over the years to increase revenue and profit. It posses strong branding which is one of the top 500 retail brands in China. It also posses top technology evident by the government decision to award it the Soyabean technology zone, as well as its additional industraial products it has diversified to. Is it shareholder friendly ? I believe its dividend policy is much better that other China companies. I will continue to hold and add to much position if it goes down further.


Well, Dow (4%)/S&P has rallied on Tuesday after the big slide on news the bill may be reinstated. Let see how things work out.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Capitulation & Massive recovery Sep 08



Recounting Capitulation & Massive recovery

2 weeks ago
Freddie/Fannie Mae required a bailout, massive rally followed follow by dropping again and drop further

1 week ago,
Lehman brothers had some issues, they had the weekend to find a buyer, failing which they have to file for chapter 11. At that point of time, I felt that with the Fed digesting FN/FM, they would not have appetite for this.

Monday,
STI started dropping early in the morning. I covered 7 S&P futures which was down around -30 points at 1212. I quickly shorted SIMSCI at 7 lots 304. (went down 4 + points )

Monday Night, Lehman file for Chapter 11, Dow crashes 4 % to 1190

On Tuesday 16 sep, I covered at 6 lots 296.4. Made an order the same day sell 4 lots at 301 and got it as STI recovered. As you can see, my shorts was getting smaller and smaller..... cannot be too greedy.

As I know with STI dropping already 20+% since June to Sep (4 months) the odds are great that a rebound was coming. I know I am getting overwhelm with fear. I would probably have capitulated if not for my shorts shoring up my longs.

On Wednesday, Dow was flat the previous day. So STI recovered. I also covered back 301.6 at a small loss.I wanted to change to the DOW as Dow futures were up 18 points around 1220. I wanted to change to Dow shorts, but I put an order at 1222. So, I did not get it unfortunately.

Wednesday night, AIG ran into trouble.....they have 1 day to sort out to refinance their capital. Fed was unwilling to bail out AIG, and was pushing the banks to help bail them out. S&P crash 4.5% to 1155. I watch in unbelive as my potential profit of 37K vanished !

So how.... I was overwhelm with fear and pek chek..... so now... I have to buy from blood on the streets. I put in several orders... Hong Guo 0.18 (0.22), Beauty China 0.445 (50.5), Hi-P 35 (38), Swiber 1.03 (1.14), Celestial 0.485 (0.55) DBS & SGX (did not want to put as the minimum bid that can be placed is 10 points which is little). In the end DBS 15.50 (16.14) ...I wanted about 80 cents shortfall and it has a daily buyback in place.... and SGX 5.55 (6.04) one of the most shorted stocks.... SIMSCI 282.2 (297)

Thursday...as expected STI crashed 100+ pints or 3.8% in the noon.... a few things happened......unfortunately a friend was distracting me asking me for investment advice...this made me not monitor the SIMSCI closely...also I had to settle FixMarket stupid issue again....

In the morning, I got 100lots BC which dropped 13%, in the afternoon I saw STI climbing already...so I quickly bought 100 lots celestial. In the end only about 5 % bought ( 90K).
In the afternoon, with Central banks intervention pumping in 100 billions of money into the financial market, most Asian countries made an astonishing rebound !

Thursday night , AIG got bailed out and massive 400 point for the DOW. After Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) imposed a four-month ban (January 16 next year) on short-selling financial stocks on Thursday the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission followed suit on Friday with an immediate 10-day ban (799 Financial stocks till Oct 2)

Friday STI went up an astonishing 135 points (5.4%). DOW also went up another 300 points. What a roller coasting week !

What is next...I expect something postive to happen over the weekend or next few days probably Morgan Stanley.... massive shorts covering and novice investors pouring in should boost market up another 2-3 % at least.
STI 2559 (SIMSCI 317.15), DOW (11388) S&P (1255)... SIMSCI 324.4 will look nice, S&P (1280)

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Investment/Sentiment Sep 08

STI crashes from 2600-2450 around 5 %. due to Lehman brothers collapse.... Now AIG is next....I see panic selling and blood on the streets...butDow is still very high at 11000 down 15% from 13000 YTD.

I have caution myself for buying shares, but somehow or rather I was seduced into buying...maybe overconfident

In a extreme bear market, PE 6 to PE 3 is a 50% loss..... so even PE 6 may not give you a sufficient margin.

Right now, every upday is followed by 2-3 days of crashing, so every upday is an opportunity to sell. People thinking of cashing into the upside have fallen flat.

Now, many people are anticipating the market to come down even further. When it does, people will think that they are lucky to have avoided the market.

When there is a mini rally, people will think that it is a bear rally.“It will fall further.”And usually, it really does fall further.

Again, it makes people feel that they are right not to buy.It will go up and down until a point where even the most bullish person turns bearish.“......this will repeat a few times till people believe..."Oh its another bear rally"......that is when the finally the bull will turn up.

Even me right now, my shorts have not been covering the longs.... Lately, my shorts were 40% and Longs 55%. And what I learnt,
1) don't trade shorting in a bear market. In a Bear market, sell and hold.
2) Consider the US market vs the Singapore Market. Eg, Lehman did not secure fundings over the weekend. US futures very negative, but STI not that negative yet....can cover US and short Singapore futures. As when US market open, STI may drop further.
Eg 2, US rally the previous day, and futures up the next day. It is better to cover and short the US futures.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Dear Mr. Buffett:

First off, I would like to thank you for meeting with me and my Lehman Brothers team earlier this week. The opportunity to outline our plan to you personally was the highlight of my professional career. I know that it has been a few years since you had an office in Manhattan, and we aren’t asking you to take a chair and a desk, but your steady hand at Salomon Brothers is an example of what all of us on Wall Street are so desperately seeking in these difficult times.

As I clearly outlined during our meeting, I firmly believe that an investment in Lehman Brothers by Berkshire Hathaway is a classic opportunity for your great company to, once again, buy a fabulous global franchise at a very fair price. This isn’t at all like the situation that John Gutfreund put you in, and I recognize that you are wary given your previous experience. Wall Street has changed dramatically since 1991, it is far more of a franchise business that relies on capital than the “people” business that you were once used to. As you mentioned, the $700 million Salomon deal was the single largest commitment of your career at that point; and I take your point that such sums are now just the bonus pool for the commodity division

But much has changed. Over the past year, our firm’s market capitalization has shrunk by more than $30 billion (about 75%). All of the shareholder wealth that we’ve created over the past 10 years has been completely erased in a matter of months, and yet our firm has never had brighter opportunities nor a stronger safety net. This is the investment opportunity that we see for you and the rest of the Berkshire family. You have the opportunity to invest in the brokerage industry at prices not seen for a decade.

Our firm is poised to return to greatness, and many of Bear”s clients are coming our way.

Just the other day, a survey of U.S. institutional investors by Greenwich Associates found that “among the largest players, [Lehman and JP Morgan] scored highest in providing their [fixed income] clients the best support and understanding during the market turmoil.” This survey, conducted between February and April, also found that while JPMorgan was found to have slightly more institutional trading relationships, Lehman Brothers had slightly more market share.
What this survey will confirm for you is that our trading desk has continued to serve our many international clients, even when other brokerage firms were pulling back. This bodes well for the next Bull Market.
I have spoken to both the Treasury Secretary and Chairman Bernanke, and they are prepared to assure you personally that Lehman will continue to have access to the Fed’s discount window for many years to come, if so required. As such, our firm cannot fail in the traditional sense. The federal government’s balance sheet is impregnable. This is an investment circumstance that rarely presents itself in the lifetime of any investor; even one as successful as your own.
We are very reluctant to raise capital at this juncture. Our recent $6 billion equity raise was intended to help us weather even the worst storm. I understand that some intermediaries reached out to you at that time, and that you rightly advised that your modus operandi was not to invest in a club format. I regret that anyone troubled you with the idea back in May, and recognize that by passing then, as you said in our meeting, you avoided suffering the 44% drop in our shares since that deal was announced on June 10th.
Your wisdom is clear. But this time it will be different.

As we discussed, approximately $145 billion of long-term debt is outstanding including current year maturities of $18.5 billion with $8 billion of commercial paper. We have a plan to deal with these debt tranches, but recognize that a partnership with you would be a tremendous asset when we return to the debt markets. My Treasury team advises that we could save in excess of 200 basis points on our medium term paper if Berkshire agreed to be our strategc investor prior to commencing our current year debt refinancing activities.

The investors who joined our shareholder group in June recognize that much of what has happened over the past 5 weeks was unforseen. But no one likes losses, paper or otherwise. That being said, they will be elated if you join their ranks, let me assure you of that. That old saying, “dilution is your friend”, rings all the more true when the name “Buffett” is involved in the dilution.

My partners and I are prepared to consider a $5 billion convertible preferred investment, paying an 8% annual cash yield, with redemption and retraction rights in, say, 20 years. Our stock rallied yesterday on the back of the positive news out of Wells Fargo. But, with a sensible discount to yesterday’s closing price of $16.65, your firm would own approximately 33% of our Company, at closing. Naturally, we would very much want you to consider joining our Board of Directors at the earliest opportunity. Other names would be welcome as well.

As we both know, an announcement that Berkshire had agreed to invest capital in our firm would propel both LEH shares and the broader bank index. If yesterday’s rally is any indication, you could earn a 25% return in a single day merely on the news of your financial commitment to me and our franchise.

I appreciate that you have been displeased with the role that you believe Wall Street has directly played in the credit crisis of the past 12 months. I noted that, during our meeting, you specifically named Lehman and Bear Stearns as two of the financial institutions that were at the forefront of the growth in the CDO, CLO, ABS, subprime and credit swap markets.

As you know, the job of an investment bank is to bring to market the products that the market wants to buy. Although we pride ourselves in our Top 5 ranking in the M&A tables, the fees generated on advisory assignments pale in comparison to the revenue that flows from the underwriting side of our industry, whether it be equity, structured products or debt. I took your point that Wall Street must play a “quality control” role in the process of selling products to our clients, and I strongly believe that we did our utmost on that front.

We were so convinced that these vehicles were money machines that we bought them for the accounts of our own captive hedge funds. We put our money where our mouths were.
I understand that you are also dubious about the long term capability of the hedge fund industry to produce returns that exceed your sense of market norms. I have two points to make on that front.

Hedge Funds are a key revenue driver on our trading desks, and excellent Prime Brokerage clients as well. Up to 40% of our daily block trades are done for hedge fund clients. Moreover, our ability to create our own hedge funds has generated substantial fees from institutional investors and pension funds around the world. Although the recent SEC push to curtail some of the more attractive trading strategies of hedge funds such as ours may hamper our ability to beat the index, the fee streams that our funds generate are extremely valuable. Particularly at times, such as now, when the underwriting and advisory revenues are weaker than we would like.

However, if you would like a commitment from me to exit the hedge fund business, I will certainly recommend such action to the Board should you agree to our investment proposal. Although I am the leader at Lehman, I am always open to well-reasoned perspectives.
In summary, let me again thank you for agreeing to meet with us. I believe that you’ve been presented with a unique investment opportunity, and one that is sure to be successful. Your hallmark is to invest in top notch management teams, and I humbly submit that we’ve demonstrated that we can navigate difficult waters.

With your financial commitment to our firm, the sailing will be smooth, and the entire U.S. financial services industry will benefit from the rising tide that would surely follow a commitment from Berkshire. The positive impact that would have on the economy is clear, which would directly beenfit the rest of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio of companies. This is the way that America can exit the recession that you believe we are experiencing right now.

Thank you, in advance, for your time and consideration. As Senator McCain said himself, and I passed along to you, “the country needs you”, and we are honoured that you are considering this opportunity.

Yours Sincerely,
“signed”
Richard Fuld,Chairman and CEOLehman Brothers Inc.

My take - act of desparation.....with FED swallowing FN & FM have enough indigestion on their hand..... its bye bye to them

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Investments update

Haven't been updating so far as I have been extremely busy with work.

So what's new....as writing now, DOW is 11,640 up 100 points after reporting houses plunge by 7.6 % and foreclosure surge 55 %.... this is also 2 days after the FED's decision to close naked shorting period is over. DOW was actually down 10800+ 3/4 weeks ago with various news that a banks Freddic/Fannie/ Merill Lynch are going kaput
....so a suckers rally so far up 800 points....

My portfolio is up about 2 % ( it was up 13% highest in end May when Celestial hit 93-94 cents)...
Most of my profits is coming from my shorts
Trades so far
- 6 lots City Development from 11.6 - 10.5..... within 1 month
- 7 SIM SCI from 390 to 370.....left it to early.... mistake....should hold till blood in the street...no blood yet what for cover ?
- 10 contracts 356 to 353..... SIM SCI rebounded for 2 days from a low of 346 and I went it ....also mistake... after going down for so long and FED made the move, should wait for 1 week+ at least as it went to a high of 363...... here emotions have been affecting me as it has been sliding 3-4 weeks...
- shorted 20 lots Captialand 5.73 to 4.98 and covered.... Capitaland has more meat than City Development....CD is more astute having cleared most of their properties and less agreesive at the top.... their land bank is relatively cheap as seen in Lividia in Pasir Ris which was got really cheap in 1999 I think 200-300 psf only.
- 10 contracts from 357 to 347...... 1 mistake is that I should cover probably in the early morning if I expect a National Day/Olympic rally on Friday... here DOW was closing down 3 days and the it went down 200 points the day before..... If SIM SCI contracts is down a good portion in the early morning (at 8:45 it was trading around 343 down from 347), I should just cover
- now SIM SCI is 344 and STI has not been participating in the latest rally, so more meat is in the US market.... my current shorting is 7 S&P mini at 1300.45
- went it for a speculative play buying SGX from 7.45, cut loss at 7.05.... was expecting oil to drop....but oil did not drop till 1-2 weeks later, and the US market more important news were the bankruptcy of the banks. I was actually deliberating between SIA and SGX. I expected SGX to be more shorted, thereby more short fuel rally....this is being greedy....next time, take the safer and more direct theme related bet.... I would have earned at least 10 K and not lost 10 K if I were to employ this....knock my head..better learn

Stock portfolio wise
Celestial 51 % price now 72 cents
China Milk 13 % price now 69 cents
SMRT 3% price now 1.84 (my 2nd best gainer from 1.71....regretting did not add up)
Pokka 3 % price no 65 cents ( up 70% still in the process of a General Take over by its parent)
Maqurie Infrastructure 1%
Darco 0.6 %
S&P 7 contracts short 1300.25

Celestial reported 2nd quarter earnining...will update some of the business development.... I think it is doing rather well considering its revenue was affected by the Chengdu earthquake which affected its most profitable drink business... its profit is up 11% YoY.
I think it is an excellent business with PE around 5.8 FY 0708 and 4.7 FY 0809, which can grow sustainably with stable growth 10-20% next few years. Sentiment is quite bad now, but I am confident Mr. Market will rerate this excellent business with excellent business management.
I think I can get a 2-4 bagger in 2-4 years time. Lets see.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Portfolio and Sep07 Sentiments

Most of the stocks when further up when I sold.

I again sold off more of my stocks. I am almost 95% in cash. Portfolio YTD is around 37%.

Only thing I have left is QAF.

I guess I look like the lonely guy now who have left the party early. I have been rather conservative since late last year, thus reducing my performance.

I think the writing is already on the wall why I think there is a downturn.

Although I am bullish on the Singapore economy, being an export oriented economy and closely tighted to the fortunes of the US, I think it will go down with it.

The US housing has lots more to go down. People always mention subprime, but I believe it is as much as 30 % US housing which has a problem.

People will always save their house first, thus consumer spending will slow down tremendously.

Housing/Developers will be hit, Housing agents will be hit, Finanical Instituions will be hit, Retailors specialising in Housing/Furniture related stuff, Consumer slowdown, I believe it is the perfect storm coming. The lightning and thunder has flashed, it is just waiting for the storm to come....

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Investment Strategy and Sentiment Sep07

Investment Strategy
After the recent rebound, I was not able to particpate fully in the recovery. On the following day after the Fed rate cut, I entered extra 13% in ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng. Although it gave me decent returns, it was insignificant compared to my portfolio.

I discover that I have to refine my investment strategy due to my size of my portfolio. My past investment strategy on looking at small caps is not as effective as I cannot enter and exit as easily.

1) I cannot concentrate on small caps, but have to look at the mid and blue chips right now. The small cap volumn is too small to go in or out.
2) Each entry will have to have at least 13% to be effective.
3) With my bearish sentiment, I will have to have a hit and run strategy on the blue chips. What are interesting ? UOB (Share buyback) 18.2, OCBC (Ningbo IPO) 7.6, Keppel Corp 9.8 (Oil Rigs), Singtel (Bharti)

Investment Sentiment
With the elections coming in 2008, I believe Helicopter Berneke will pay lip service on the inflation topic, and flood easy money to the economy. He is handpick by Bush to take over Greenspan. Will he cut this sep18 ? Although that is the worst option, I believe he will.

I think the US economy will tailspin into stagflation, and while US Stock market may go higher, I prefer to stay in the sideline. Like what Warren Buffet mention,

...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."