Investment Strategy
After the recent rebound, I was not able to particpate fully in the recovery. On the following day after the Fed rate cut, I entered extra 13% in ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng. Although it gave me decent returns, it was insignificant compared to my portfolio.
I discover that I have to refine my investment strategy due to my size of my portfolio. My past investment strategy on looking at small caps is not as effective as I cannot enter and exit as easily.
1) I cannot concentrate on small caps, but have to look at the mid and blue chips right now. The small cap volumn is too small to go in or out.
2) Each entry will have to have at least 13% to be effective.
3) With my bearish sentiment, I will have to have a hit and run strategy on the blue chips. What are interesting ? UOB (Share buyback) 18.2, OCBC (Ningbo IPO) 7.6, Keppel Corp 9.8 (Oil Rigs), Singtel (Bharti)
Investment Sentiment
With the elections coming in 2008, I believe Helicopter Berneke will pay lip service on the inflation topic, and flood easy money to the economy. He is handpick by Bush to take over Greenspan. Will he cut this sep18 ? Although that is the worst option, I believe he will.
I think the US economy will tailspin into stagflation, and while US Stock market may go higher, I prefer to stay in the sideline. Like what Warren Buffet mention,
...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Portfolio Sep07
After the recent volatility and rebound, returns YTD is 36%. Although the STI in general rebounded, I had about 30% in equities, and did not enjoy the rebound.
The Fed cut the discount rate to the FI by 25 basis points on Friday (after 2-3 weeks of downturn) , causing Wall Street to boom almost 2%. I had wanted to go in the next week Monday, but the Fed disrupted all my plans.
Anyhow, I trim back on my portfolio even further to 15%.
I sold off SMRT, Darco, most of Techcomp. I sold of part of ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng which I bought on Monday (The day STI rebounded after the Fed cut).
Not a good price, but right now I think it is time to be conservative.
This is my current portfolio
ASL Marine 4%
Metro 4%
QAF 4%
QAF Warrant
TechComp 1 %
Gen Mag 1 %
Cash 85%.
The Fed cut the discount rate to the FI by 25 basis points on Friday (after 2-3 weeks of downturn) , causing Wall Street to boom almost 2%. I had wanted to go in the next week Monday, but the Fed disrupted all my plans.
Anyhow, I trim back on my portfolio even further to 15%.
I sold off SMRT, Darco, most of Techcomp. I sold of part of ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng which I bought on Monday (The day STI rebounded after the Fed cut).
Not a good price, but right now I think it is time to be conservative.
This is my current portfolio
ASL Marine 4%
Metro 4%
QAF 4%
QAF Warrant
TechComp 1 %
Gen Mag 1 %
Cash 85%.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Portfolio Aug 07
The headlines the last 2-3 weeks was the sub-prime news in the US. While this was a known issue and my portfolio was conservative with 40% as cash, my portfolio declined about 7% from its peak.
Last month I sold off CSC (43 cents) and Genting (93 cents) which I considered my speculative counters. I was lucky as I sold them before the big sell off. Just last week, I sold off Ecowise (71 cents) and Kian Ann (41 cents) and then later China Milk (1.17) and some Metro (92).
I think CSC has made its run from 3 cents plus to 49+ cents. While it will continue to benefit from the construction boom, its main Shareholder Tat Hong will be eager to cash out after getting their shares at about 5 cents. They sold around 10% of outstanding shares at 45 cents.
With the UK changing their stance on super casinos, (Genting was a strong forerunner with its subsidary to clinch a casino contract), the returns on Genting looks less attractive. I believe Genting is artificially supported now as they are raising cash with rights issue. I think Genting may fall at least 20% after the rights issue.
Sold Ecowise as my investments were small and they spiked up from 62 cents upwards. My gains were about 120%. I also sold of Kian Ann as their PE was no more attractive.
Later in the week, I decide to be even more ultra conservative. I wanted to have some ammo when the recession hits. I sold off China Milk (I did not take into account their financial costs) and some Metro.
YTD Porfolio is now up 37 %.
My portfolio is now 70% cash and 30% equities.
Portfolio is now
SMRT
Metro
TechComp
Darco Environment
QAF
QAF Warrant
Gen Mag
Food Junction
Last month I sold off CSC (43 cents) and Genting (93 cents) which I considered my speculative counters. I was lucky as I sold them before the big sell off. Just last week, I sold off Ecowise (71 cents) and Kian Ann (41 cents) and then later China Milk (1.17) and some Metro (92).
I think CSC has made its run from 3 cents plus to 49+ cents. While it will continue to benefit from the construction boom, its main Shareholder Tat Hong will be eager to cash out after getting their shares at about 5 cents. They sold around 10% of outstanding shares at 45 cents.
With the UK changing their stance on super casinos, (Genting was a strong forerunner with its subsidary to clinch a casino contract), the returns on Genting looks less attractive. I believe Genting is artificially supported now as they are raising cash with rights issue. I think Genting may fall at least 20% after the rights issue.
Sold Ecowise as my investments were small and they spiked up from 62 cents upwards. My gains were about 120%. I also sold of Kian Ann as their PE was no more attractive.
Later in the week, I decide to be even more ultra conservative. I wanted to have some ammo when the recession hits. I sold off China Milk (I did not take into account their financial costs) and some Metro.
YTD Porfolio is now up 37 %.
My portfolio is now 70% cash and 30% equities.
Portfolio is now
SMRT
Metro
TechComp
Darco Environment
QAF
QAF Warrant
Gen Mag
Food Junction
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Portfoilio July07
My portfolio is now up 45% YTD. It is underperforming the Sesdaq as I am still mostly vested at 60% with 40% left as cash. Counting just investments only, I will be up 75%. Well, that is the price to pay for being conservative.
My portfolio is getting more and more like a zoo. Usually when I purchase, I do it part by part because of my investment size. Usually the price zooms off before I finish the accumulation, and I have to start to source for another gem. I have been busy with my property agent job and that cause me valuable research time, missing out a few gems during this time.
From my last update, I have sold off Full Apex (due to oil), Pan United Marine (Being Bought over) Superbowl ( went up >50% in a few weeks) and added in Genting, Kian Ann, China Milk, QAF, Hoe Leong and Gen Mag.
This is my portfolio at half time.
CSC
Metro
Genting
SMRT
China Milk
TechComp
Darco Environment
Kian Ann
Ecowise
Gen Mag
QAF
QAF Warrant
Hoe Leong
Food Junction
I will be Hong Kong next week on a business trip.
My portfolio is getting more and more like a zoo. Usually when I purchase, I do it part by part because of my investment size. Usually the price zooms off before I finish the accumulation, and I have to start to source for another gem. I have been busy with my property agent job and that cause me valuable research time, missing out a few gems during this time.
From my last update, I have sold off Full Apex (due to oil), Pan United Marine (Being Bought over) Superbowl ( went up >50% in a few weeks) and added in Genting, Kian Ann, China Milk, QAF, Hoe Leong and Gen Mag.
This is my portfolio at half time.
CSC
Metro
Genting
SMRT
China Milk
TechComp
Darco Environment
Kian Ann
Ecowise
Gen Mag
QAF
QAF Warrant
Hoe Leong
Food Junction
I will be Hong Kong next week on a business trip.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
INTERVIEW - Singapore's CSC Holdings eyes Indian, Vietnamese markets 6/8/2007 1:25:00
INTERVIEW - Singapore's CSC Holdings eyes Indian, Vietnamese markets 6/8/2007 1:25:00
PM SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) -
CSC Holdings Ltd, a building foundation specialist, is looking at opportunities in India and Vietnam because it expects these two countries to accelerate their investment in infrastructure in the next few years, CSC president and group chief executive See Yen Tarn said. See told XFN-Asia in an interview that setting its sights on opportunities overseas should give the group balanced growth in the future, should the construction boom here falter -- although at this stage it was likely that the boom would continue. "We have a clear visibility in the domestic market in the next 3-5 years," See said. The construction industry here is busy building casino resorts at Marina Bay and on Sentosa island, new shopping malls on Orchard Road, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and upmarket residential condominiums in and around the central business district. CSC's latest results reflect the industry's rapid growth. In the financial year ended March, CSC's net profit surged 127.6 pct to 8.6 mln sgd as revenue rose 18.1 pct to 126.7 mln sgd and net profit margins widened to 7.3 pct from 4.1 pct. Growth in the next few years will be underpinned by the group's order book, worth about 380 mln sgd, which includes a 240 mln sgd contract secured by CSC's wholly-owned subsidiary L&M Foundation Specialist Pte Ltd with the Marina Bay Sands casino resort. See said CSC's capacity was almost fully utilized now, given that Marina Bay Sands, which opens in 2009, and other projects here will keep the group busy in the next few years. See said that he would focus on finishing projects already in the pipeline rather than go after new projects vigorously. "We should be able to secure a few more jobs, but we do have capacity constraints," See said. The tight supply of specialized construction equipment and labor are among these constraints. See said his company would begin taking opportunities abroad only next year or after. He believes the next construction booms will be in India and Vietnam, because both countries have under-invested in infrastructure and the economic growth there in the past few years has put a strain on infrastructure. He reckons CSC will be able to seize opportunities in Malaysia much more quickly than in Vietnam or India because it already has a foothold in Malaysia. In March 2006, CSC bought G-Pile Sistem Sdn Bhd, a Malaysian provider of hydraulic jack-in piling services. "G-Pile will be our platform to expand into Malaysia," See said. There are also a number of infrastructure and property projects in Malaysia, notably the plan to transform the Iskandar Development Region in the southern state of Johor into an industrial and tourism hub.
PM SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) -
CSC Holdings Ltd, a building foundation specialist, is looking at opportunities in India and Vietnam because it expects these two countries to accelerate their investment in infrastructure in the next few years, CSC president and group chief executive See Yen Tarn said. See told XFN-Asia in an interview that setting its sights on opportunities overseas should give the group balanced growth in the future, should the construction boom here falter -- although at this stage it was likely that the boom would continue. "We have a clear visibility in the domestic market in the next 3-5 years," See said. The construction industry here is busy building casino resorts at Marina Bay and on Sentosa island, new shopping malls on Orchard Road, the Marina Bay Financial Centre and upmarket residential condominiums in and around the central business district. CSC's latest results reflect the industry's rapid growth. In the financial year ended March, CSC's net profit surged 127.6 pct to 8.6 mln sgd as revenue rose 18.1 pct to 126.7 mln sgd and net profit margins widened to 7.3 pct from 4.1 pct. Growth in the next few years will be underpinned by the group's order book, worth about 380 mln sgd, which includes a 240 mln sgd contract secured by CSC's wholly-owned subsidiary L&M Foundation Specialist Pte Ltd with the Marina Bay Sands casino resort. See said CSC's capacity was almost fully utilized now, given that Marina Bay Sands, which opens in 2009, and other projects here will keep the group busy in the next few years. See said that he would focus on finishing projects already in the pipeline rather than go after new projects vigorously. "We should be able to secure a few more jobs, but we do have capacity constraints," See said. The tight supply of specialized construction equipment and labor are among these constraints. See said his company would begin taking opportunities abroad only next year or after. He believes the next construction booms will be in India and Vietnam, because both countries have under-invested in infrastructure and the economic growth there in the past few years has put a strain on infrastructure. He reckons CSC will be able to seize opportunities in Malaysia much more quickly than in Vietnam or India because it already has a foothold in Malaysia. In March 2006, CSC bought G-Pile Sistem Sdn Bhd, a Malaysian provider of hydraulic jack-in piling services. "G-Pile will be our platform to expand into Malaysia," See said. There are also a number of infrastructure and property projects in Malaysia, notably the plan to transform the Iskandar Development Region in the southern state of Johor into an industrial and tourism hub.
Sunday, June 3, 2007
Pan United Marine / Superbowl
Sigh... 1 more gem being taken over. There was a takeover offer of 2.38 from Dubai Drydocks World. I think I have not much to comment but it is too low which I expect to reach 3.00. Ex-cash, it is about 10-11x PE. Looks like the Ng family will like to enjoy their fruits of labour early. What I am puzzled is why are they selling so low unless they have a better investments around ?
My entry price is from 50 cents + and even accumulated in Feb around 1.7. It gave me very good returns as well as big dividends. I will miss this one. I sold everything at 2.41, which I was quite surprised someone took. Either something is still brewing or someone did not do his sums right. Well.....
I am looking at some of the other oil counters and another 1-2 counters right now to replace this.
Superbowl - it shoot up about 50% from my buying price, while this may continue, I think it is good enough for me.
My entry price is from 50 cents + and even accumulated in Feb around 1.7. It gave me very good returns as well as big dividends. I will miss this one. I sold everything at 2.41, which I was quite surprised someone took. Either something is still brewing or someone did not do his sums right. Well.....
I am looking at some of the other oil counters and another 1-2 counters right now to replace this.
Superbowl - it shoot up about 50% from my buying price, while this may continue, I think it is good enough for me.
Old Airport Road property
I am helping a colleague to source for property around where I stay - Old Airport Road. Wah the property here really sells like hot cakes. When I tried to source and co-broke, most of the flats were sold. The only ones left were low floors or Non-Chinese.
She wanted to have a flat here where is near her in-laws so that travelling to-fro to collect her 1 yr old son from her in-laws will be much more convenient. Now, it is a bit of logistic nightmare as she lives quite far. Also she is targetting the Kong Hua school for a son.
I have been enquiring around and the transacted price here is also also about 20% above valuation. That means about 50-60K cash uprfront. Well, that is the price to pay for the convenience and location - school and when the MRT circle line comes in.
She wanted to have a flat here where is near her in-laws so that travelling to-fro to collect her 1 yr old son from her in-laws will be much more convenient. Now, it is a bit of logistic nightmare as she lives quite far. Also she is targetting the Kong Hua school for a son.
I have been enquiring around and the transacted price here is also also about 20% above valuation. That means about 50-60K cash uprfront. Well, that is the price to pay for the convenience and location - school and when the MRT circle line comes in.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
