Wallstraits forum has a thread about investment strategy.
I think this is mine.
I will consider mine as Growth Investing (Certain level of Moat) taking into account Macroeconomics environment coupled with short term trading.
Now the macro environment is bad and will get worse.
1) There was already a bull run from 2003 to 2007 (5 years)
2) The property bubble in the US has burst (It is in the news)
Someone will say if it is in the news, the share price has already discounted it. However I feel that is the tip of the iceburg and will be a self fulfilling prophecy making the housing market spin into the downturn, as from the peak it only drop about 1 year. It is still long way off. At least 1.5 - 2 years.
3) The CDOs in the finanicals are weapons of mass destruction. This will cause at least 1-2 major banks to crash.
4) The US property crash, the financial crash and after China olympics, investments in China will slow. Property markets in UK, Spain, Ireleand will also crash. The India economy which is highly dependant on the textile industry (about 50%) will also slow. China stock market is a bubble. I have heard stories that as there are many people playing the stock market, the company who employ them will hire someone full time so that the employees can concentrate on working.
What is my investment strategy now ? I guess cash (95%). I have made more than 7 times (600%) my investments from 2003. I was already cautious last year. This time is the 3rd time I am making the call that the downturn to be true.
Money can be made in the best times. In the worse times, I do not have the confident to make correct judgement calls. It is the best to stay in cash, and play my short term play.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Jan 2008 Investments
Was around 35 % vested going into the New Year. With China Milk and SMRT my big counters.
But the last day I saw Dow dropping heavy. Jia Luk, looks like it was a foreboding warning for me. I quickly pared down my holdings on the opening of 2008 to 14%. Looks like my hand itchy is getting me into trouble.
As expected, Dow continued dropping the next 2-3 weeks from 13200 to 11800+.
STI dropped from 3400+ to 2780+ about a drop of 20+%. I was already itching to go in, but I was waiting for Dow to drop before buying the next day. Monday was a US holiday you see, and STI drop 6% on Monday and about 5% on Tuesday but recovered to about 1.5%.
Well, helicopter Bernake in the early morning cut interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.5%, limiting losses to Dow. The next 1-2 weeks Dow rebounded to 12800, having 4 out of 5 days positive. STI also rebounded to 3100.
I tried to enter UOB the next day as I expected limited downside. little expect as the banks staged a late rally the day before, UOB after 1 hour + dropped into the red. I panicked and quickly cut of, sustaining losses (17.06 to 16.86). This shows that emotions is still running and affecting me. I should just wait out at least 1 week. It rebounded to a high of 18.6+...sigh.
Lesson learnt, control emotions , wait for 1 week at least. (Short covering, + oversold position. Any stable news will surge upwards)
Portfolio down by 1.3 % as compared to STI down more than 10 %.
But the last day I saw Dow dropping heavy. Jia Luk, looks like it was a foreboding warning for me. I quickly pared down my holdings on the opening of 2008 to 14%. Looks like my hand itchy is getting me into trouble.
As expected, Dow continued dropping the next 2-3 weeks from 13200 to 11800+.
STI dropped from 3400+ to 2780+ about a drop of 20+%. I was already itching to go in, but I was waiting for Dow to drop before buying the next day. Monday was a US holiday you see, and STI drop 6% on Monday and about 5% on Tuesday but recovered to about 1.5%.
Well, helicopter Bernake in the early morning cut interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.5%, limiting losses to Dow. The next 1-2 weeks Dow rebounded to 12800, having 4 out of 5 days positive. STI also rebounded to 3100.
I tried to enter UOB the next day as I expected limited downside. little expect as the banks staged a late rally the day before, UOB after 1 hour + dropped into the red. I panicked and quickly cut of, sustaining losses (17.06 to 16.86). This shows that emotions is still running and affecting me. I should just wait out at least 1 week. It rebounded to a high of 18.6+...sigh.
Lesson learnt, control emotions , wait for 1 week at least. (Short covering, + oversold position. Any stable news will surge upwards)
Portfolio down by 1.3 % as compared to STI down more than 10 %.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Singapore will spend 20 billion Singapore dollars (US$14 billion; ?9.5 billion) to double its railway network
SINGAPORE - Singapore will spend 20 billion Singapore dollars (US$14 billion; S$9.5 billion) to double its railway network by 2020, the city-state's transport minister said Friday.
The new lines will also triple the network's load from 1.4 million journeys a day to 4.6 million, said Minister for Transport Raymond Lim said.
"The government has decided that all these rail projects are a necessary investment to ensure that our transport infrastructure meets the needs of a growing population and an expanding economy," Lim said.
Together with rail lines currently under construction, the new ones will double the network length from 138 kilometers (85 miles) to 278 kilometers (172 miles), he said.
A new line will be built to connect Woodlands in the north to downtown Marina Bay, where one of Singapore's two casinos is being built, while another line will be built to connect Marina Bay to the eastern parts of the island, along the coast.
The existing rail lines that run north to south and east to west will also be extended, he said.
"By 2020, people who live or work in the city and those who shop and find enjoyment there will be able to reach an MRT station within 400 meters (437 yards) on average, a mere five-minute walk," Lim said.
The Southeast Asian city-state projects its population will increase by more than 40 percent to 6.5 million over the next 40-50 years, based on current demographic trends. Leaders have urged land planners to explore new ways of creating space to accommodate the potential increase
The new lines will also triple the network's load from 1.4 million journeys a day to 4.6 million, said Minister for Transport Raymond Lim said.
"The government has decided that all these rail projects are a necessary investment to ensure that our transport infrastructure meets the needs of a growing population and an expanding economy," Lim said.
Together with rail lines currently under construction, the new ones will double the network length from 138 kilometers (85 miles) to 278 kilometers (172 miles), he said.
A new line will be built to connect Woodlands in the north to downtown Marina Bay, where one of Singapore's two casinos is being built, while another line will be built to connect Marina Bay to the eastern parts of the island, along the coast.
The existing rail lines that run north to south and east to west will also be extended, he said.
"By 2020, people who live or work in the city and those who shop and find enjoyment there will be able to reach an MRT station within 400 meters (437 yards) on average, a mere five-minute walk," Lim said.
The Southeast Asian city-state projects its population will increase by more than 40 percent to 6.5 million over the next 40-50 years, based on current demographic trends. Leaders have urged land planners to explore new ways of creating space to accommodate the potential increase
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Portfolio 2007 Review
This is the year where I was very cautious. Most of the time I had only about 50% invested.
My YTD performance is 35.55 %. Nothing fantastic, but satisfied. Most forummers I know have achieved 50-80%. Well, what to do if I extrapolate my performance with what I invested, it is around 70% ...yeah IQ jing shen.
Even though I tried to stay out of the market since Sep 07 as I knew things will get worse, I itchy hand went to buy China Milk and Darco. They have respectively fell and cut down my portfolio by 30+K.
Lesson learnt - Discipline means discipline. When you have decided the course of action, whether the market moves up, you should disregard it. Treat it as bo pian, ming bu shi ni de.
My biggest winner in terms of cash this FY is CSC, which more than doubled and contributed half of my gains . It is indeed a speculative stock, but constrution was in doldrums in the last few years, and with the government initiative to revamp Singapore with 2 Integrated Resorts, Sports Hub, Circle line and property boom in singapore, it was a strong beneficiary. It was cheap and it was a good play.
I bought mostly at 20 cents and sold most at 43 cents. A good thing is that I did have discipline and was not greedy. Make money - sell.
My next big winner is Pan United Marine. Although I bough at around 50+ cents a year ago, I have been entering and exiting it a few times. My cost this FY is around 1.6+ and was unfortunately had a mandatory take over by Dubai Drydocks. I sold it around 2.41 a cool 50% gain. It still had lots of cash, strong book orders till 2009 and generous dividends.
I had other good winners like Techcomp about 50% (32 - 50 cents) Ecowise (Doubled) and Superbowl (50%) but wasn't bought at big quantities to have much impact.
Now my failures.
i ) Longcheer, which I did not fundamentally understand its business landscape and competitors. I made the investment because of the 3G license which did not materialse. Its business model became focus more and more on low cost handphones and their profits plunge. Also, handphone makers also spin off their internal R&D departments and buy from this spin-offs. The cash cow perios was over.
ii) Memtech, also a play on 3G. It also has a high dividend rate, but I don't understand why it is still languishing.
iii) China Milk - still smarting because of high PE 13
Lessons learnt
- Be more discipline
- Research more into the companies businesss landscape before investing
- Given a choice buy companies with stronger pricing power
My YTD performance is 35.55 %. Nothing fantastic, but satisfied. Most forummers I know have achieved 50-80%. Well, what to do if I extrapolate my performance with what I invested, it is around 70% ...yeah IQ jing shen.
Even though I tried to stay out of the market since Sep 07 as I knew things will get worse, I itchy hand went to buy China Milk and Darco. They have respectively fell and cut down my portfolio by 30+K.
Lesson learnt - Discipline means discipline. When you have decided the course of action, whether the market moves up, you should disregard it. Treat it as bo pian, ming bu shi ni de.
My biggest winner in terms of cash this FY is CSC, which more than doubled and contributed half of my gains . It is indeed a speculative stock, but constrution was in doldrums in the last few years, and with the government initiative to revamp Singapore with 2 Integrated Resorts, Sports Hub, Circle line and property boom in singapore, it was a strong beneficiary. It was cheap and it was a good play.
I bought mostly at 20 cents and sold most at 43 cents. A good thing is that I did have discipline and was not greedy. Make money - sell.
My next big winner is Pan United Marine. Although I bough at around 50+ cents a year ago, I have been entering and exiting it a few times. My cost this FY is around 1.6+ and was unfortunately had a mandatory take over by Dubai Drydocks. I sold it around 2.41 a cool 50% gain. It still had lots of cash, strong book orders till 2009 and generous dividends.
I had other good winners like Techcomp about 50% (32 - 50 cents) Ecowise (Doubled) and Superbowl (50%) but wasn't bought at big quantities to have much impact.
Now my failures.
i ) Longcheer, which I did not fundamentally understand its business landscape and competitors. I made the investment because of the 3G license which did not materialse. Its business model became focus more and more on low cost handphones and their profits plunge. Also, handphone makers also spin off their internal R&D departments and buy from this spin-offs. The cash cow perios was over.
ii) Memtech, also a play on 3G. It also has a high dividend rate, but I don't understand why it is still languishing.
iii) China Milk - still smarting because of high PE 13
Lessons learnt
- Be more discipline
- Research more into the companies businesss landscape before investing
- Given a choice buy companies with stronger pricing power
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
KL Trip
Took a 3 day holiday trip to Kuala Lumpar. Was one of the few breaks I was looking forward to.
Arrived at Sepang Airport, and our sis-in-law fetched us to her house in Bukit Jelutong at Shah Alam Selangor. It took about 40 mins. At the airport, it is closed to Putrajaya, which is the new administrative centre of Malaysia. The prime minister office and other adminstrative offices are moved there.
Bukit Jelutong is one of the high class area in Malaysia. It is a property development which is outside the busy KL and has many rows of rather luxurious houses. It is a nice place to stay.
We went to Restoran Green, the place famous for their LobsterLong Xia shen mien. Really yummy :) You can really taste the lobster taste in the noodles.
The crab was also quite good, with Hei Bi (Prawn paste) taste. But my personal preference is still Long Beach.
The 2nd day we went to Klang to take their their claypot Ba Ku Teh. The soup as usual is very delicious. The soup is boiled for a long time and you can really taste the pork taste in the soup.
We then went to a shopping centre (The Curve)The Curve at Mutiara Damansara.
The 3rd day we went to Bangsa area for lunch. Bangsa area is another very high class area in Kuala Lumpar. We then went to Midvalley a megamall where we bought some of my CNY clothes and my toddler son's clothes. It was very crowded and rather modern. It looks like Malaysia retail is doing well.
Arrived at Sepang Airport, and our sis-in-law fetched us to her house in Bukit Jelutong at Shah Alam Selangor. It took about 40 mins. At the airport, it is closed to Putrajaya, which is the new administrative centre of Malaysia. The prime minister office and other adminstrative offices are moved there.
Bukit Jelutong is one of the high class area in Malaysia. It is a property development which is outside the busy KL and has many rows of rather luxurious houses. It is a nice place to stay.
We went to Restoran Green, the place famous for their LobsterLong Xia shen mien. Really yummy :) You can really taste the lobster taste in the noodles.
The crab was also quite good, with Hei Bi (Prawn paste) taste. But my personal preference is still Long Beach.
The 2nd day we went to Klang to take their their claypot Ba Ku Teh. The soup as usual is very delicious. The soup is boiled for a long time and you can really taste the pork taste in the soup.
We then went to a shopping centre (The Curve)The Curve at Mutiara Damansara.
The 3rd day we went to Bangsa area for lunch. Bangsa area is another very high class area in Kuala Lumpar. We then went to Midvalley a megamall where we bought some of my CNY clothes and my toddler son's clothes. It was very crowded and rather modern. It looks like Malaysia retail is doing well.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Fixmarket - Life Experience
This Fixmarket thing return to haunt me. This Mr. Jiang still has not paid 2 years of auditing fee for Fixmarket.
I am really quite fed up and I want to close this chapter this year. Either he appoint another foreign director and I resign or he close the company.
Emmy also told me to beware of Amy. This teaches me a lesson on how far you can extend your friendship to people. Apparently, Amy asked Emmy (when she was an employee of Amy) to help her pack her things. And this CID (Amy's boyfriend) did not let her into the house. At the end, only the packers came into the house to pack her things. This apprarently saved her as Amy was suspected of stealing Diamonds and Jewellery from her father-in-law. If she had entered the house, she will be suspected of stealing the goods. Apparently she told the police that the goods were stolen along the way when the goods were packed from that house to another location. If Emmy were allowed into the house, she would be the prime suspect.
She also warned us not to help Amy to carry her things.
I am really quite fed up and I want to close this chapter this year. Either he appoint another foreign director and I resign or he close the company.
Emmy also told me to beware of Amy. This teaches me a lesson on how far you can extend your friendship to people. Apparently, Amy asked Emmy (when she was an employee of Amy) to help her pack her things. And this CID (Amy's boyfriend) did not let her into the house. At the end, only the packers came into the house to pack her things. This apprarently saved her as Amy was suspected of stealing Diamonds and Jewellery from her father-in-law. If she had entered the house, she will be suspected of stealing the goods. Apparently she told the police that the goods were stolen along the way when the goods were packed from that house to another location. If Emmy were allowed into the house, she would be the prime suspect.
She also warned us not to help Amy to carry her things.
Happy BD to YY -Dinner
Happy Birthday to my wife :)
We went to Oosh at Dempsey road for dinner (yeah quite Suah Ku) . It was one of the rarest time we managed to come out to a a new dinning place for dinner after having our 1 year-old son. I know that if we do not make the effort today, it will be quite long before we go to another dinining place.
The ambience was 5 star at Oosh. It was very big, with a band, and a resort like ambience, with trees and sofas around.
We were at first directed to a sofa place, but as we had HZ with us, it will be more appropriate to have a proper dinning table. Also, they do not have any baby seats. I guess all these restaurants cater for the working professionals who are having a great party time there.
We had Lamb rack ($35) which had a great sauce and Scallop Tempayaki ($30) which tasted normal.
Before and after the dinner, we drove around. It was quite pack, and I believe it will be a nightmare to park during Fridays and Weekends. They had several restaurants, and my wife told me that the Korean restaurant and the la something (French) restaurant was quite good. When I drove around, there was also a place called Wine Network, it looked like a great place for partying (alot of AngMohs there too).
We went to Oosh at Dempsey road for dinner (yeah quite Suah Ku) . It was one of the rarest time we managed to come out to a a new dinning place for dinner after having our 1 year-old son. I know that if we do not make the effort today, it will be quite long before we go to another dinining place.
The ambience was 5 star at Oosh. It was very big, with a band, and a resort like ambience, with trees and sofas around.
We were at first directed to a sofa place, but as we had HZ with us, it will be more appropriate to have a proper dinning table. Also, they do not have any baby seats. I guess all these restaurants cater for the working professionals who are having a great party time there.
We had Lamb rack ($35) which had a great sauce and Scallop Tempayaki ($30) which tasted normal.
Before and after the dinner, we drove around. It was quite pack, and I believe it will be a nightmare to park during Fridays and Weekends. They had several restaurants, and my wife told me that the Korean restaurant and the la something (French) restaurant was quite good. When I drove around, there was also a place called Wine Network, it looked like a great place for partying (alot of AngMohs there too).
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