Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Watch Italy bond yields

Maturing debts in 1st half 2012.
Short hsi, stoxx 50, NASDAQ

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011 Dec update

Had a type 1 minimal displace fracture <2mm on my right hand on 25 sep . Could not bend nor straighten my right hand after trying to save my kid from falling off the sofa, went to ttsh a&e. 1week on half cast, 4 weeks on full cast. Was very itchy on my whole hand, and trouble bathing. Worse still it was the most busy part of my work.

Also I had planned a trip to hongkong, as my second son is just a week before 2 year old. With this, air ticket for 1 year old is ard 1/4 the price. We could also ask for extra baby cot in 1 room and did not have to book 2 rooms.
It was busy and sometimes difficult time in HK - had to push the stroller into crowded mrts, and carry the stroller above railings as there were only 1 or 2 exits where we could push the stroller through. 1 unforgettable experience was going up Victoria peak pushing the stroller from the mrt, really shack. Also the taxi driver and some passengers we ask told us the wrong station to get down. Luckily we asked several people to confirm, but nevertheless we went around a few station before finally getting to the right station.
But I simply love the food there. We went to tang dynasty for dinner and enjoyed the desserts. Then went to joy cuisine for dim sum breakfast - it was simply delicious- bird nest egg tart , chao sao boa ( with sause dripping out of the bao after taking a bite ) , hau kau , skew Mai etc.

After the HK trip my friends bought tickets for royal carribean - legends of the sea cruise. Overall it was an enjoyable trip as I enjoyed the variety shows, bingo game and the food was sueprisingly quite good. Besides my family, I also had 2 good friends accompanianship. I and a friend also team up to win the doubles table tennis competition haha..

Investment wise, I sold off sembcorp ind at 3.8 , a bit too early as basically the whole month of oct the stock market rally after 3-4 months of fall. I also sold off my risky stocks - sold off all my lithium stocks ( talison lithium 6% and orc 1% ) as I believe the electric car have too many hurdles before it take off and will need subsidy which prob may not be avail during crisis/ tough times .sold off boustead (cyclical), hour glass (did not like it's ballooning inventory), temp comp (Europe crisis), cerebos (Thailand flooding).

Have reduced my losses to 11%.
What I have left is ard 35%
- people's food (I believe it will improve profit after investing downstream - but may take some time as normally commercial farming takes place after the 4 th cycle where they are currently in the 2nd) . A play on agriculture where real assets are the one which matters. If hog prices goes down, it will benefit PF. If hog prices goes up, it will kill off other competitors. With its dorminant position, it should be well positiioned for growth.
Incidentally, I noticed that I first bought PF in 2003 at around 75 cents as well. for the last 8 years, the price has gone a whole cycle back to the same price. At these last 8 years, it has growth revenue 4 times larger, however profits has gone down because of high hog prices. With its huge investment downstream, I believe this willl rectify this issue and reap rewards in time to come
- Stamford land , where their assets are easily worth double the amount ard $1 as evident on a mou signed with a third party for some of their hotels, and contribution of the sold apartments in 2nd half the the fy due to the recognition of profit for property in Australia)
Will be looking for good profits in Q3 and Q4 (revenue recognition)
- sing holdings, mtq , smrt, popular , lkt.

Also took 55% against the market via HSI, Nasdaq, STOXX 50 Euro
Watch the Italian bond yields.
Gold has gone up straight last 11 years, it is no wonder it is breaking down, if not because of the Europe crisis, I would have shorted it.