Sunday, November 4, 2007

Fixmarket - Life Experience

This Fixmarket thing return to haunt me. This Mr. Jiang still has not paid 2 years of auditing fee for Fixmarket.

I am really quite fed up and I want to close this chapter this year. Either he appoint another foreign director and I resign or he close the company.

Emmy also told me to beware of Amy. This teaches me a lesson on how far you can extend your friendship to people. Apparently, Amy asked Emmy (when she was an employee of Amy) to help her pack her things. And this CID (Amy's boyfriend) did not let her into the house. At the end, only the packers came into the house to pack her things. This apprarently saved her as Amy was suspected of stealing Diamonds and Jewellery from her father-in-law. If she had entered the house, she will be suspected of stealing the goods. Apparently she told the police that the goods were stolen along the way when the goods were packed from that house to another location. If Emmy were allowed into the house, she would be the prime suspect.

She also warned us not to help Amy to carry her things.

Happy BD to YY -Dinner

Happy Birthday to my wife :)

We went to Oosh at Dempsey road for dinner (yeah quite Suah Ku) . It was one of the rarest time we managed to come out to a a new dinning place for dinner after having our 1 year-old son. I know that if we do not make the effort today, it will be quite long before we go to another dinining place.

The ambience was 5 star at Oosh. It was very big, with a band, and a resort like ambience, with trees and sofas around.

We were at first directed to a sofa place, but as we had HZ with us, it will be more appropriate to have a proper dinning table. Also, they do not have any baby seats. I guess all these restaurants cater for the working professionals who are having a great party time there.

We had Lamb rack ($35) which had a great sauce and Scallop Tempayaki ($30) which tasted normal.

Before and after the dinner, we drove around. It was quite pack, and I believe it will be a nightmare to park during Fridays and Weekends. They had several restaurants, and my wife told me that the Korean restaurant and the la something (French) restaurant was quite good. When I drove around, there was also a place called Wine Network, it looked like a great place for partying (alot of AngMohs there too).

Monday, October 29, 2007

Best Financial Advice

Gary Belsky, co-author of "Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them: Lessons from the New Science of Behavioral Economics":

"Be afraid when people are greedy, and greedy when people are afraid. It's basically, 'Buy low and sell high.' In general, I've been doing better than market averages when I've been handling my investments. I've basically done that by being conservative when the market is frothing and aggressive when the market is down."

Wayne W. Dyer, Ph.D., author of "Your Erroneous Zones" and "It's Not What You've Got: Lessons for Kids on Money and Abundance":
The lesson "for me was, first, pay yourself," Dyer says.
While in the Navy stationed in Guam, Dyer saved 90 percent of his pay over the last 18 months he was there. "So I came home with enough money to pay tuition for four years of school and a car. Even today I pay myself first. If you want to be financially independent by the time you're 30 years old, pay yourself first.
"When you get your paycheck, take a percentage -- between 10 percent and 30 percent -- and put that away," Dyer says. "You'll be rich enough to be financially independent within a short period of time."

Neale S. Godfrey, author of "Money Doesn't Grow on Trees: A Parent's Guide to Raising Financially Responsible Children," and chair of the Children's Financial Network:
"Step away from the television and the magazines. All they serve to do is show you how stupid you are because you've missed whatever they're talking about. It's old news. It's already happened."
The advice came from her financial adviser, she recalls. "I used to call him and say, 'Why didn't we ...?' He'd say, 'Stop it. Step away from the television. It's done.'"
She realized that he was right. "By the time you see it or read it, it's done; it's happened," Godfrey says. And if you listen and follow the hot news, she says, "You will buy at the top and sell at the bottom -- exactly what you're not supposed to do."

George Kinder, Certified Financial Planner, author of "The Seven Stages of Money Maturity: Understanding the Spirit and Value of Money in Your Life," and founder of The Kinder Institute:
"It's about the meaning, not the money. If my investing is not really deeply tied to what I think is most important in my life," he says, then, "the asset allocation, the estate plan, the retirement plan might as well be thrown out the window."
His best advice: "Hire a Registered Life Planner (a financial planner with additional training in helping clients identify and reach life goals) to help you through this," Kinder says. "Nobody can do this themselves."
A life trainer, he says, "is trained in how to elicit from a client what is meaningful and how to keep their eyes on the prize."

Robert Kiyosaki, co-author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money -- That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!":
"My rich dad gave me lots of advice. One of the better ones: There's good debt and bad debt. Bad debt is debt you have to pay for and makes you poor. If I use credit cards to buy new shoes it makes me poor. Good debt makes me rich and someone else pays for it."
One example: "I'm closing on a $17 million property and financing $14 million. That $14 million is good debt. It makes me richer every month by putting $20,000 in my pocket."
Rieva Lesonsky, co-author of "Start Your Own Business," and senior vice president and editorial director at Entrepreneur magazine:

Lesonsky's best advice "was from the owner of our magazine, Peter Shea," she recalls. "He said, 'Housing prices have gone up -- get a second mortgage and pay off your debt.' I did, and I'm debt-free."

Peter Navarro, Ph.D., author of "The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won," and associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, Irvine:
"Take every piece of advice you get from any investment adviser with a barrel of salt. Most are trying to sell you things that you probably don't need or want. Think for yourself."
Navarro says he learned that lesson after a bad experience with a financial adviser. "I lost some money, then took control and never looked back," he says.

Dave Ramsey, author of "The Total Money Makeover: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness" and host of a nationally syndicated radio show focusing on personal finance:
"A friend of mine who is a billionaire told me that he reads a book to his grandkids and I should read that book. The book is 'The Tortoise and the Hare.' Every time he reads the book, the tortoise wins. Slow and steady wins the race, and consistency matters. Get-rich-quick never wins.
"If you try to impress other people, you'll lose the wealth race, as well," Ramsey says. "It sure did give me a nice metaphor. It's a good reminder to somebody like me to keep me in check. It has implications for debt, for mutual funds, for budgets -- an overlay for everything."

Monday, October 8, 2007

Lonely

I am so lonely, standing aside when the party is going on.
STI has moved up another 15 % when I decide to leave the party. Sigh....
It seems that the stock market has disregarded any problems which ever exist.
Are things better ? I don't think so. Will things get worse, likely so. Watch ... the USD is crumpling.

YTD portfolio 39%.

There are only 1-2 counters worth accumulating.

What am I optimistic on... commodoties.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Fed cuts 50 basis points to 4.75%

Berneke saves the day!

Urgg...As I expected Helicopter Ben pays scant regard to the inflation topics and saves the stock market. I should have known that to protect his reputation (he will not want to be the first Fed on watch with a crash in the market), and being handpicked by Bush, he will resort to more drastic measures.

Sigh... I was more or less out of the market, so in the morning I put some orders for the banks. They are quite beaten up, and the Fed move will benefit the emerging markets better. The banks will be definetly be a good short term play.

I learnt my lesson prevously, and entered the blue chips this time. (Small cap do not impact my bottom line)

Went in UOB 21, exit 21.3. (yest close 20.5, down 0.3)
Went in DBS 19.7 exit 19.9. (yest close 19.3, down 0.2)

New lesson learnt, 1) do not overpay (~2% premium). 2) UOB with share buy back is a better play. 3) have to lift my credit limit in account.

I will wait their further bad news. Lehmann Brothers results were good, posting a slight decline even after writing down 700mio in subprime mortages.

The other big investment bankers will be reporting soon. Somehow I think Goldman Sachs will show a slightly bigger decline. Beware, DBS is another time bomb, possibly writing off some value in its 3rd quarter earnings.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Portfolio and Sep07 Sentiments

Most of the stocks when further up when I sold.

I again sold off more of my stocks. I am almost 95% in cash. Portfolio YTD is around 37%.

Only thing I have left is QAF.

I guess I look like the lonely guy now who have left the party early. I have been rather conservative since late last year, thus reducing my performance.

I think the writing is already on the wall why I think there is a downturn.

Although I am bullish on the Singapore economy, being an export oriented economy and closely tighted to the fortunes of the US, I think it will go down with it.

The US housing has lots more to go down. People always mention subprime, but I believe it is as much as 30 % US housing which has a problem.

People will always save their house first, thus consumer spending will slow down tremendously.

Housing/Developers will be hit, Housing agents will be hit, Finanical Instituions will be hit, Retailors specialising in Housing/Furniture related stuff, Consumer slowdown, I believe it is the perfect storm coming. The lightning and thunder has flashed, it is just waiting for the storm to come....

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Investment Strategy and Sentiment Sep07

Investment Strategy
After the recent rebound, I was not able to particpate fully in the recovery. On the following day after the Fed rate cut, I entered extra 13% in ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng. Although it gave me decent returns, it was insignificant compared to my portfolio.

I discover that I have to refine my investment strategy due to my size of my portfolio. My past investment strategy on looking at small caps is not as effective as I cannot enter and exit as easily.

1) I cannot concentrate on small caps, but have to look at the mid and blue chips right now. The small cap volumn is too small to go in or out.
2) Each entry will have to have at least 13% to be effective.
3) With my bearish sentiment, I will have to have a hit and run strategy on the blue chips. What are interesting ? UOB (Share buyback) 18.2, OCBC (Ningbo IPO) 7.6, Keppel Corp 9.8 (Oil Rigs), Singtel (Bharti)

Investment Sentiment
With the elections coming in 2008, I believe Helicopter Berneke will pay lip service on the inflation topic, and flood easy money to the economy. He is handpick by Bush to take over Greenspan. Will he cut this sep18 ? Although that is the worst option, I believe he will.

I think the US economy will tailspin into stagflation, and while US Stock market may go higher, I prefer to stay in the sideline. Like what Warren Buffet mention,

...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."