Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Investments Strategy

Wallstraits forum has a thread about investment strategy.

I think this is mine.

I will consider mine as Growth Investing (Certain level of Moat) taking into account Macroeconomics environment coupled with short term trading.

Now the macro environment is bad and will get worse.
1) There was already a bull run from 2003 to 2007 (5 years)
2) The property bubble in the US has burst (It is in the news)
Someone will say if it is in the news, the share price has already discounted it. However I feel that is the tip of the iceburg and will be a self fulfilling prophecy making the housing market spin into the downturn, as from the peak it only drop about 1 year. It is still long way off. At least 1.5 - 2 years.
3) The CDOs in the finanicals are weapons of mass destruction. This will cause at least 1-2 major banks to crash.
4) The US property crash, the financial crash and after China olympics, investments in China will slow. Property markets in UK, Spain, Ireleand will also crash. The India economy which is highly dependant on the textile industry (about 50%) will also slow. China stock market is a bubble. I have heard stories that as there are many people playing the stock market, the company who employ them will hire someone full time so that the employees can concentrate on working.

What is my investment strategy now ? I guess cash (95%). I have made more than 7 times (600%) my investments from 2003. I was already cautious last year. This time is the 3rd time I am making the call that the downturn to be true.

Money can be made in the best times. In the worse times, I do not have the confident to make correct judgement calls. It is the best to stay in cash, and play my short term play.

No comments: