Saturday, June 6, 2009

June09

Regional indices have been rallying and STI/HK is up 30-40% this year.

Unfortunately yours truely have been severly underperforming, portfolio is down 4-5% this year, although an improvement from the low of 24% in March, mainly due to my biggest holding Celestial.

I have divested most of my Celestial taking a sharp loss which will unfortunately although business is sound, may face a financial liquidity crunch, unable to finance its convertible bond.

I have also divested Darco taking a sharp loss. I also read the annual report of Darco, I did not like I see as its receivables/debts has been ballooning upwards.

I have also divested MIIF which I find that its dividends may be cut even further due to its debt and subsidary debt. Its parent is also selling of them.

I have shifted most of my funds to SMRT, CDL hospital Trust. Why ? Most blue chips have ran up, with the banks/SPH ard 15-20x this years PE. SMRT is ard 16x giving me a dividend of abt 5%. Growth next year will be the circle line and more integrated network making it the most dorminant transport infrastructure in Singapore. Next year will be boosted by more attractions in Singapore. Just think, it will be so easy going to the zoo, IR.

Why CDL ? The IR is aiming to attract high flyers, but I feel that the tourists mass will be fr SE Asia region like Malaysia/Indonesia/Thailand, people who will most probably fill up the 3-4 star hotels which CDL fit the bill. At 79 its dividend should be ard 10%. 1st Q2009 DPU is ard 2 cents.

In an article published in October 2008, the Singapore Tourism Board is said to be confident of a
recovery in the Singapore tourism industry by 2010. The industry outlook is expected to remain
positive in the medium to long term, as a result of a strong line-up of world-class events such as
the annual Formula One Grand Prix and the Youth Olympic Games in 2010. The two Integrated
Resorts (“IR”) scheduled for completion within the next two years and the doubling of Singapore’s
cruise ship capacity by 2010, when the new International Cruise Terminal becomes operational,
are also expected to increase passenger traffic to Singapore.
In addition, Singapore continues to draw international interest in the Meetings, Incentives,
Conventions & Exhibitions (“MICE”) space, including the APEC conferences to be held in 2009.
Having been voted as the “Top International Meeting City for 2007” by the Union of International
Associations in August 2008, the completion of new convention facilities in the two IRs will
enhance Singapore’s ability to attract a wide range of international events.
Continued low debt to asset ratio
On 30 January 2009, CDLHT had its properties re-valued at S$1.48 billion, down from S$1.63
billion previously. The re-valuation of its properties has no impact on distributions.
Notwithstanding reduced property values, CDLHT continues to enjoy one of the lowest gearing
ratios among Singapore REITs with debt to assets of 18.2%. Furthermore, CDLHT continued to
demonstrate strong operating cash flows of S$102.8 million, and a healthy interest cover of 11.1
times. CDLHT is also proactively managing its portfolio and financing risks, with discussions in
progress to explore various options to secure refinancing of its S$273 million borrowings due July
2009.

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