Nov 09

Continue my extremely busy schedule.

October was a very hetic month for me.
Firstly at work, this is my company's financial year end, there are monthly /quarterly/ yearly reports to be done.
Secondly, me, my son and my wife's birthday fall in this month.
Thirdly, as my 2nd son is due I have to take leave to accompany my wife to see the doctor, and have to take care of my 1st son more often.
Fourthly, my dad had to see a urologist due to a high PSI reading. I accompanied my dad a few times to Dr.Png for consultation and for a biosyss.

Investment wise, I have been going in and out of the market (scared of correction). Thus this year my results is just flat. I went into DBS as I was confident of it posting better anticpated results and last quarter I believe will see a MtM (mark to market) to MtM2 (mark to model) accounting by financial institution, will this give the market a further boost ?On March 16, 2009, FASB proposed allowing companies to use more leeway in valuing their assets under "mark-to-market" accounting, a move that could ease balance-sheet pressures many companies say they are feeling during the economic crisis. On April 2, 2009, after a 15-day public comment period, FASB eased the mark-to-market rules. Financial institutions are still required by the rules to mark transactions to market prices but more so in a steady market and less so when the market is inactive. To proponents of the rules, this removes the unnecessary "positive feedback loop" that can result in a deeply weakened economy.

I also made a few bad mistakes, going into Genting because of some rumors.

The lesson here is to stay in the market (unless there was a big disaster coming along), and to pick up undervalued/potential big giants from mid/small caps.

My investment now consists of SMRT 47% CDL Hospitality Reits 31% Boustead 9% , B/M/V make 5% of my portfolio, and unfortunately I have still 7% in Celestial which I probably have to write off.

My outlook - US market will be hit by 2 more monsters - credit card / commerical debts . Right now, the stock market is feeding itself to too much exubuerance. Cash is rubbish now. Heli Ben has made cash absolutely useless. The only way out of this financial crisis is to blow up another bubble....see the comparison after the dot-com....US blew up the housing bubble.....now it is back to basics 101.

SMRT
My rationale of keeping SMRT is obvious, in a downturn, it should hold as it is recession proof. In a potential upmarket, its current PE now is ard 13 (6.5 for 1st half), a complete steal for a monopoly. Look at its cash flow, it is at least 50% more. Growth will also come next year in terms of tourists growth due to the 2 IRs, circle line, and more economic recovery activities (more movement). Next 2 years growth should be ard 30% or so. I am also looking postively over the retails contribution next year (Doby Gaut / Orchard Xchange / Jurong East Exchange).
For more infor look at :http://singaporebuspage.wordpress.com/2009/11/01/next-stop-3-more-smrt-xchanges/

This is what I feel for more potential growth....although the governemnt is mulling over having a bid for the downtown line, I feel that XXXX. Y? the NE line already shows the stuXXX of the whole situation already, will the goverment still make another misXXX ? Let see a few years down the line how this get played out and whether I get this correct.

CDL
Its current yield is around 5.5 % at price 1.52 and 8 cents dividend. Next year I am very optimistic on the IR bringing many more tourists. There are actually many new tourists development being done in Singapore, besides the 2 IR/ F1/ smaller unnoticeable developments like manmade water surfing in Sentosa... bigger extension at the zoo - Wildlife Reserves Singapore Builds River Safari, Asia’s First River-themed Animal Attraction. CDL HR has shown it has weathered the downturn extremely well despite the recession and H1N1. It has managed to keep costs in check and has a sizeable hotel presence in Singapore which allowed it to have a certain level of economics of scale.

Boustead
At its current price, it should give a dividend yield of 5.5%. (4 cents/ 74 cent) I have faith in Wong FF for turning this gem into a bigger giant. It is credited for being forbes top 200 company. It will not reach last year's height as its real estate division will not sell of any of its properties this year unlike last year as this year most REITs are hit by credit crunch. I had bought Boustead much earlier on at 60 cents (30 stock split adjusted) and sold most of it at 1.1 cents (0.55 stock split adjusted) a few years back. It manage to ran up further because its profit YoY manged to grow and I did not expect it to manage to sell its real estate. This time, because of the low price, high cash (37 cents) , I expect it to provide a buffer for me.