Sunday, October 12, 2008

Black Week (Monday- Friday)

This whole week was one of the worst week ever for US financial markets.
US market has been dropping 6 consecutive days, with the last 2 days dropping 7% on Thursday and Friday futures was actually -6% before recovering to -1.5%.

Having closed my S&P shorts at 975 (And I thought I was very greedy already from 1300), my portfolio is also suffering. It is down 23% now. (in fact down 15% last 2 days). My strategy did not do well even though I know a big bear market is coming. My strategy was to buy undervalue stocks but to sell futures. what went wrong ?
1) My shorts was not enough to cover my longs. My shorts was only 25-40%, while my longs was 50-80%
2) In a bear market, one should sell and hold, However, I traded in and out, missing some big movement.
3) My strategy ideally is to cover at a reasonable down point, and buy when it dip, however this time when I really decided to close my shorts, I left 2 big days of down movement (~10%)
4) Will have to review my strategy again.

One of the worst hit is my main investment Celestial now at 28 cents. It is now trading at a ridiculous PE of 2 and dividend yield of 7%. Anybody who buys this now definely make a ton in a few years time.

Recent news on Ferrochina's bankruptcy and China Printing and Dyeing's scandal has caused china S shares on a downward spiral with no respite. The baby is thrown out with the water basin, Is this justified ?
1) Celestial has a net cash of 300+ Mio RMB after deducting its CB and loans. (About 10 cents per share)
2) It has already spent the majority of its capital infrastructure (ex inventory I think) for its immediate expansion (15,000 ton beverages, 5000 ton powder,10,000 noodles, 5000 pasteries) lauching 2008 year end. Thus its cash position is alright
3) Being granted as a sole company in charge of the soya bean technology zone speaks volume of the trust and due dilligence done on Ming Dequan (the Chairman) and Celestial, not your Tom/Dick/Harry China textile company.
4) It has exciting plans for the company expansion, which I believe it will grow to be one of top brands in China and not in a downward spiral. Yes I think the tainted milk incident will pass in 6 months time (as in SARs ) and yes most importantly milk is not soya.
5) Why I persist in continuing buying (maybe I am stupid) is that the only companies for exponential growth you can buy is in China and not local Singapore companies (maybe 1 or 2 Raffles Education locally)

Lets see Celestial performance in the coming quarters. Soya Bean prices have been trending down almost 40% from its peak. It probably will affect industrial products like soya oil however I think it will be positive for its retail products.

I will hold my shares and see how it performs in 3-5 years time. It should give me a few baggers by then. It is a no brainer now to average down.

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