Berneke saves the day!
Urgg...As I expected Helicopter Ben pays scant regard to the inflation topics and saves the stock market. I should have known that to protect his reputation (he will not want to be the first Fed on watch with a crash in the market), and being handpicked by Bush, he will resort to more drastic measures.
Sigh... I was more or less out of the market, so in the morning I put some orders for the banks. They are quite beaten up, and the Fed move will benefit the emerging markets better. The banks will be definetly be a good short term play.
I learnt my lesson prevously, and entered the blue chips this time. (Small cap do not impact my bottom line)
Went in UOB 21, exit 21.3. (yest close 20.5, down 0.3)
Went in DBS 19.7 exit 19.9. (yest close 19.3, down 0.2)
New lesson learnt, 1) do not overpay (~2% premium). 2) UOB with share buy back is a better play. 3) have to lift my credit limit in account.
I will wait their further bad news. Lehmann Brothers results were good, posting a slight decline even after writing down 700mio in subprime mortages.
The other big investment bankers will be reporting soon. Somehow I think Goldman Sachs will show a slightly bigger decline. Beware, DBS is another time bomb, possibly writing off some value in its 3rd quarter earnings.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Portfolio and Sep07 Sentiments
Most of the stocks when further up when I sold.
I again sold off more of my stocks. I am almost 95% in cash. Portfolio YTD is around 37%.
Only thing I have left is QAF.
I guess I look like the lonely guy now who have left the party early. I have been rather conservative since late last year, thus reducing my performance.
I think the writing is already on the wall why I think there is a downturn.
Although I am bullish on the Singapore economy, being an export oriented economy and closely tighted to the fortunes of the US, I think it will go down with it.
The US housing has lots more to go down. People always mention subprime, but I believe it is as much as 30 % US housing which has a problem.
People will always save their house first, thus consumer spending will slow down tremendously.
Housing/Developers will be hit, Housing agents will be hit, Finanical Instituions will be hit, Retailors specialising in Housing/Furniture related stuff, Consumer slowdown, I believe it is the perfect storm coming. The lightning and thunder has flashed, it is just waiting for the storm to come....
I again sold off more of my stocks. I am almost 95% in cash. Portfolio YTD is around 37%.
Only thing I have left is QAF.
I guess I look like the lonely guy now who have left the party early. I have been rather conservative since late last year, thus reducing my performance.
I think the writing is already on the wall why I think there is a downturn.
Although I am bullish on the Singapore economy, being an export oriented economy and closely tighted to the fortunes of the US, I think it will go down with it.
The US housing has lots more to go down. People always mention subprime, but I believe it is as much as 30 % US housing which has a problem.
People will always save their house first, thus consumer spending will slow down tremendously.
Housing/Developers will be hit, Housing agents will be hit, Finanical Instituions will be hit, Retailors specialising in Housing/Furniture related stuff, Consumer slowdown, I believe it is the perfect storm coming. The lightning and thunder has flashed, it is just waiting for the storm to come....
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Investment Strategy and Sentiment Sep07
Investment Strategy
After the recent rebound, I was not able to particpate fully in the recovery. On the following day after the Fed rate cut, I entered extra 13% in ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng. Although it gave me decent returns, it was insignificant compared to my portfolio.
I discover that I have to refine my investment strategy due to my size of my portfolio. My past investment strategy on looking at small caps is not as effective as I cannot enter and exit as easily.
1) I cannot concentrate on small caps, but have to look at the mid and blue chips right now. The small cap volumn is too small to go in or out.
2) Each entry will have to have at least 13% to be effective.
3) With my bearish sentiment, I will have to have a hit and run strategy on the blue chips. What are interesting ? UOB (Share buyback) 18.2, OCBC (Ningbo IPO) 7.6, Keppel Corp 9.8 (Oil Rigs), Singtel (Bharti)
Investment Sentiment
With the elections coming in 2008, I believe Helicopter Berneke will pay lip service on the inflation topic, and flood easy money to the economy. He is handpick by Bush to take over Greenspan. Will he cut this sep18 ? Although that is the worst option, I believe he will.
I think the US economy will tailspin into stagflation, and while US Stock market may go higher, I prefer to stay in the sideline. Like what Warren Buffet mention,
...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
After the recent rebound, I was not able to particpate fully in the recovery. On the following day after the Fed rate cut, I entered extra 13% in ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng. Although it gave me decent returns, it was insignificant compared to my portfolio.
I discover that I have to refine my investment strategy due to my size of my portfolio. My past investment strategy on looking at small caps is not as effective as I cannot enter and exit as easily.
1) I cannot concentrate on small caps, but have to look at the mid and blue chips right now. The small cap volumn is too small to go in or out.
2) Each entry will have to have at least 13% to be effective.
3) With my bearish sentiment, I will have to have a hit and run strategy on the blue chips. What are interesting ? UOB (Share buyback) 18.2, OCBC (Ningbo IPO) 7.6, Keppel Corp 9.8 (Oil Rigs), Singtel (Bharti)
Investment Sentiment
With the elections coming in 2008, I believe Helicopter Berneke will pay lip service on the inflation topic, and flood easy money to the economy. He is handpick by Bush to take over Greenspan. Will he cut this sep18 ? Although that is the worst option, I believe he will.
I think the US economy will tailspin into stagflation, and while US Stock market may go higher, I prefer to stay in the sideline. Like what Warren Buffet mention,
...Orgies tend to be wildest toward the end. It's like being Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything's going to turn back to pumpkins & mice. But you look around and say, 'one more dance,' and so does everyone else. The party does get to be more fun -- and besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly the clock strikes 12, and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice."
Portfolio Sep07
After the recent volatility and rebound, returns YTD is 36%. Although the STI in general rebounded, I had about 30% in equities, and did not enjoy the rebound.
The Fed cut the discount rate to the FI by 25 basis points on Friday (after 2-3 weeks of downturn) , causing Wall Street to boom almost 2%. I had wanted to go in the next week Monday, but the Fed disrupted all my plans.
Anyhow, I trim back on my portfolio even further to 15%.
I sold off SMRT, Darco, most of Techcomp. I sold of part of ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng which I bought on Monday (The day STI rebounded after the Fed cut).
Not a good price, but right now I think it is time to be conservative.
This is my current portfolio
ASL Marine 4%
Metro 4%
QAF 4%
QAF Warrant
TechComp 1 %
Gen Mag 1 %
Cash 85%.
The Fed cut the discount rate to the FI by 25 basis points on Friday (after 2-3 weeks of downturn) , causing Wall Street to boom almost 2%. I had wanted to go in the next week Monday, but the Fed disrupted all my plans.
Anyhow, I trim back on my portfolio even further to 15%.
I sold off SMRT, Darco, most of Techcomp. I sold of part of ASL Marine, CSC and Hiap Seng which I bought on Monday (The day STI rebounded after the Fed cut).
Not a good price, but right now I think it is time to be conservative.
This is my current portfolio
ASL Marine 4%
Metro 4%
QAF 4%
QAF Warrant
TechComp 1 %
Gen Mag 1 %
Cash 85%.
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